1. The price reached strong support at 30 000$. For me, it is the 1st bottom. Several times the bears tried to break it and failed every time. The price action at 30 000$ confirmed the strength of this support. So, for us, any reversal and false breakouts setups at 30 000$ become interesting opportunities for buying. I would use the 4h-6h and daily TF for trading.
2. If the price bounces somehow from 30 000$ support and the bulls will be able to develop an upward movement, it will be great! We should be ready to see breakouts above the local downtrend line, MA20, and MA50. It will open the road to 42 000$ strong resistance. For holders, it will be an opportunity to optimize their portfolio and maybe fix some profit. Because there is a chance that the market bounces from 42 000$ and moves back to 30 000$ again. Why it can be like that? MA200 and 42 000$ resistance can be broken only if we have strong and active buyers in the market. How the price has been moving between 30 000$ and 40 000$ during these months, we can’t say that we have enough strong and active buyers. That’s why I think the reversal from 42 000$ will be possible.
3. And let’s talk about the situation when the price breaks 30 000$. Wow! It is the most interesting option! If the price breaks 30 000$ as the 1st bottom, the road to the 2nd bottom and probably to the 3rd will be opened! The breakout below 30 000$ will give us the same situation when the price broke 6000$ and moved to 3000$. In that situation, 6000$ acted as the 1st bottom for many months. But the bulls couldn’t develop a new uptrend from that point. The price reached the 2nd bottom at 3000$, we could see the reversal and a new after that. Now, the breakout below 30 000$ will be able to activate stop and margin calls of those traders who bought from the support. It will give additional power to the bears.
From my point of view, 20 000$ is the 2nd bottom and the perfect target for the bears. The price at 20 000$ will be good for buying if you are a big player, retail trader, or gambler. If we combine fixing profit from the side and new , the market will have everything to bounce from 20 000$ and start a new uptrend.
4. The crazy option, the price breaks 20 000$ and keeps the downward movement. What should we do in this situation? In such a situation, the 3rd bottom will be between 14 000$ and 10 000$. The important market high and 10 000$ round number support look like the perfect 3rd bottom with the best prices for the buyers. I think this bottom will be reached only if we have very strong fundamental news against the crypto market. I would take into consideration such a model, but it is not the main. I think the models above look more realistic and they should become the basis for planning future trades.
I shared with you all my thought for this moment. I have a clear plan for how to trade in the crypto market in spite of the direction. I hope you also have a clear trading plan describing all possible market situations.
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Also, share your thoughts about the further market movement in the comments below. Do you believe that the price will be able to reach 20 000$, 14 000$, 10 000$?