BTC: W-ing on 11-year trendline for INDEX:BTCUSD by forsel

What has BTC actually been doing in the last 3 months? Let’s look at the somewhat bigger picture. In my first idea I introduced an 11-year trendline for BTC . It is clear to me that BTC recently broke this trendline in early February after a pullback that started early January.
After the run-up to USD 58000 that followed, BTC stagnated ever since.

What do I think it is actually doing? It is building a massive double bottom /W consisting of 2 smaller W’s. BTC is currently in the last smaller W and once it breaks out, the larger W will also break out.

In the chart I’ve shown the 2 smaller W’s with a yellow path and the large W with a blue path.

This is something that you often see, where the legs of a W are created from smaller W’s.

What you can see is that the first W worked out perfectly and met it’s target. This then started the larger W. The recent drop on April 18th started the second smaller W (relatively speaking, it is still quite big).

Now, if BTC manages to complete the second W by breaking above the neckline at about USD 59600 (green resistance box), then it should also reach above the current ATH at USD 65000. And if that is the case, it will have broken above the neckline of that large (blue) W as well.

If this plays out, the target of the second yellow W is around USD 73000. And the target of the large blue W is around USD88000.

There is one problem. W’s can easily turn into double tops/M’s if the neckline cannot be broken. The double top is already visible (the middle of the large blue W) and it has a target of about USD 36500.

So, the coming days/week are a make or break moment for BTC . What is my bet? BTC is going up!!! It hasn’t come this far to just fall down again now.

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