Could the market recovery take another 11 months? for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by crypthal

Looking a the past bear markets we can make an educated guess as to when this current bear market might end, when the accumulation phase will start and when we might see another recovery, (and maybe even a bull run in the far horizon).

Historically the same happened in the previous bear market, (not shown in the chart), but I will use the last 2 for illustration. The previous bear markets had less data, (less trading), but the same information holds)

2018-2019 Bear market

One of the first bear market with enough data, showed us that it lasted about 370 days, as well as a drop of 85% from the all time high, this was then followed by a short accumulation period and then 170 days to the next top.

The growth from the bottom to the next high was about 300%, it did not take us to a new ATH, but the market was a lot healthier and started moving sideway from then on until the next Bull run.

There was less uncertainty in the market, (investment was coming back in the market, less fud and so on).

2022-2023 Bear market

Using the same logic as the previous bear markets, we can go from the ATH and see that 370 days should take us to November 2022 and could see a candle or two as low as $12K, (using the 85% drop).

There would then be a short period of accumulation followed by 170 days of growth and a 300% jump from there.

That would take us to June 2023 and around $48K, then the market should be a lot more positive again.

Even if the bottom was reached now, or we do not go as low as $12K, the macro economic factors do not show any kind of turnaround until the end of 2023

In summary

  • The bottom would be around $12K to $15K
  • The market will be unpredictable until November 2022
  • If we do not reach $15K then the market will keep moving sideway as traders will be expecting new lower lows.
  • The recovery will be slow and take us to June 2023
  • The next full bull run should be in 2024, another indication that a solid recovery should happen in the middle of 2023.

To be clear, the recovery will not see us to new ATH, but rather in a much more confortable, positive and healthy position, the next ‘true’ bull run should happen around the next halving in May 2024.

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