Below, I am breaking down the messy chart:
- Fibonacci Retracement: For clarity, here I am using a simple Fibonacci cone without extensions. Placing the origin at the lowest point reached due to the first COVID-19 lockdown and retracing the current point as 100%, we will find that at each level there was a correction. And so it will be this upcoming week.
- Fibonacci Spirals: Retracing most of the downward movement in the run since March last year as well as the current rally of the past few weeks indicate an area of huge resistance (the red curves above the current price) around the corner, which coincides with the aforementioned Fib retracement level.
- Trend Lines: Their intersection with the spirals indicate the possible support points (highlighted in green).
I included the possible support points up from the most conservative down to that of a market crash. However, the one I am forecasting is the intersection with the white around 32200. This is because of several reasons:
- It is around the daily 100 and the medium line of the weekly , which is the usual for big corrections short of a crash, especially when the range is high.
- The short term rally has been exclusively and a minor correction won’t relieve the tension.
- RSI is already overbought and with comparison with previous similar circumstance, a big correction always followed. Same with comparing the price action of the weekly chart. (To be discussed further in part 2 and 3)
- Retracing the short-term bull with a spiral intersects with this point, which also fits well around the Fib retracement level.
- DJ30, unlike Nasdaq100, is not overblown; that is, we are just on par with the pre-Covid19 original trend, which doesn’t pertain a market crash, only from a chart point of view, of course.