Those familiar with my system won’t find anything new here, just a simple reiteration of the same system I have used to call bear markets or local highs several times with a lot of sucess. This system helps us confirm a all time high and a top after a massive uptrend and it has many confirming components with each one by themselves should make a case for a change of bias, but all together make a very strong case for long term or bearishness. The linked charts will show where and how I was using this system to call for caution on BTC on the 3d chart at 50k to confirming the bear market on the 1 week and 1 month timeframes.
- the 20 Week is the baseline of the and used in many moving average systems. ETH has slipped the 20 ween , closed a whole candle body below, and is now testing it as resistance. The 2018 top had a much more violent slip below the 20 week and then price action tested the 20 week for around a month before continuing the downtrend. Currently ETH seems to have approached the cliff and slipped off, grabbing the 20W like it were tuffs of grass. Prediction: That hold will slip in due time with new local lows.
- Volatility Stop. A great indicator to help you determine the trend and place stops. It can also help you visualize dynamic . This has been poised bearishly since mid-may and that was a major warning sign for those familiar with the system.
- Volatility Stop . I have set this to 3x, so this basically shows the 3 week . Combined with default Vstop it helps confirm super-bearish or trends. When the VSTOP is broken the red arrow appears and we wait for confirmation and we have been on that condition for weeks now
The is a great indicator for determining what is going on with the total situation and helps measure the tension between buyers and sellers. It is a bit harder to use divergences with crypto as the process keeps adding new supply but crosses can be very important, especially if you have an exchange where you can somewhat trust data. As you can see the OBV has slipped the 10 and is now leaning heavily upon the 20. Very shortly I expect the prediction on the chart and it proceeds in an exceedingly manner.
A cross on the after an all time high by itself is a major warning sign of either major consolidation incoming or a trend reversal. When that is combined with a VSTOP or price action below the 20W it gets even more .
In order to fully confirm a bear market according to this system we are missing two related conditions
- OBV above the 10
- Bullish cross
- VStop to flip
- MTF VSTOP to flip with confirmation
- Whole Candle Bodies above the 20 W , preferably with a retest
Going up a time frame to the 2 week chart we can see that the VSTOP has already flipped , the appears to be approaching a cross, and the OBV is about to slip the 10 . In my mind with my familiarity with this system this would be a good place to take profit or prepare for reversal (bear market)
I am short an alt coin that looks particularly bad to me right now and that is my only crypto position open right now. I am not a financial advisor or a CMT but I am a guy that spend a lot of time trying to make my own system to remove my bias in determining trend to help me trend trade. And I am .