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Last chance for Gold to recover #1,800.80 barrier for OANDA:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: Gold had a Double Top formation ( Xau-Usd in my focus) on yesterday’s Asian market opening and Naturally the market reacted with a rejection. The pullback could extend as Low as the Support on Daily chart which is currently Trading at #1,769.80 and if broken, #1,763.80 in extension before new Short-term Buyers appear. The real Fundamental news were already digested by market so don’t be surprised if you see thin Volume on Wall Street’s opening, followed by Volatility . If #1,800.80 fails to hold, #1,817.80 should be the next Resistance and expect a Higher High at #1,827.80, re-Sell zone if #1,827.80 holds (calling for #100 point decline). Gold is bound to give one more Lower Low regarding Medium-term before the stabilization area. Gold is looking Neutral without firm push to break firstly #1,797.80 first Resistance, then #1,800.80 psychological barrier so far but holding the #1,769.80 which is my Support for the moment and my main point of interests. If that configuration breaks the next level to monitor is #1,763.80 which is where the Daily chart #2-Month Support zone is. In my opinion it is all about what is Gold being able to hold, since DX was on a Buying run as I expect it to continue with Buying, same as last week, and with Bond Yields almost broken the upper Lower Low zone, giving mixed values on Gold and it is a clash which side will prevail.



Fundamental analysis:
The Hourly 1 chart’s Channel Up got rejected on it’s Lower High trendline (not counting the abnormal wick of April #29) on a wide fakeout, and is now in the process of pricing it’s real Higher Low. The sequence was quite straighforward. The Price-action made a valid breakout, smashed the Resistance, and as Buying was strongly limited due to Bond Yields on a miraculous recovery, Gold Sold back the Top and was Trading on fair Technical price. My plan is to wait for the #1,786.80 configuration break, and if broken, pursue #1,817.80 configuration within the current (will then be) session both Technically and Fundamentally equipped for an Short-term uptrend. On the other hand, I will Sell on spot if #1,769.80 breaks, calling for #1,750.80 test. Bond Yields broken the Weekly chart (#1W) Support and were below the lowest point in #3 Weeks, and only factor which is stalling the uptrend is DX (# +0.50). Be alerted that the markets (especially the DX and Bond Yields) are on High speculation mode ahead of the Fundamental events as Gold could Trade on strong Volatility index.

Technical analysis prior to yesterday’s session: Despite yesterda’s E.U. opening indecision, Gold is showing high durability as it remains on Lower High relative to Friday’s and Monday’s attempts to find the equilibrium between DX and Bond Yields. Despite the new High lately on DX , the continuous dip on Bond Yields and of course the parabolic downtrend – Gold still hasn’t made a new Higher High, making me believe that the underlying trend remains Bearish (Medium-term) but with Bullish Short-term gradient, as Price-action is Trading on local Lower High’s – but I doubt it will stay this way for long. Further argument for it is that the Weekly chart is defending the further both upside and downside movement as Gold should follow soon enough (any break below #1,797.80 is an full Bullish confirmation). My advice for Short-term Traders is to Buy Gold on tight stops whenever they see Daily Bearish candle on DX or Bond notes, keeping in mind that the market has to make needed correction, can’t only Trade in one direction. Gold almost broken the Resistance and engaged Bullish extension, but Yellen’s talks regarding shifting economy Fundamentally distorted Technical fair trend and almost broken the Support zone . Market sentiment is too dangerous to approach without break points and Risk management, but both way’s I am expecting #1,800.80 psychological barrier break within #2 sessions. Gold can’t keep ignoring Low’s on Bond Yields for much longer. However as long as Gold don’t break #1,797.80, I can’t confirm Bullish continuation, but as the DX is on Neutral candles again and Yields struggling to make Bullish comeback, my Buying outlook regarding Short-term is unchanged.

My position: I have successfully added Buying order throughout yesterday’s session #1,786.80 break, and moved my Stop-loss so I can comfortably monitor the rise, but on the Yellen’s talks aftermath, Gold engaged the Daily chart #17 point decline which hit my breakeven Stop-loss, leaving me with minimum Profits (#2 consecutive Profits, calling for #3rd). However, as discussed above, I will approach with extreme care and breakout points: If #1,786.80, it can pave the way towards #1,797.80 Resistance where I will add more Buying orders if breaks, riding Buying wave already from #1,786.80 with my Buying orders. However on the other side, I will Sell on spot if #1,769.80 breaks, where I will pursue #1,750.80 with my Selling orders.

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