I’m using the Dow Jones chart because it has the most historical data. This chart goes back to 1887 , has data from the great depression and two world wars , 1974 stock crash , 2000 crash and 2008 crash .
I have been trying to pinpoint some sort of pattern on a Marco timeframe using the Fann but no luck so then I tried it on the and I found something very interesting. Not sure if the can be used in this manner but nevertheless we can see that price has failed to break the 8/1 ratio since 2017 and in the process created divergence.
So it seems that the triangle formed on the comes to a conclusion in 2024, where the 8/1 Ratio and the base support line cross (Yellow Square). Not only that but there is a Fibonacci time Zone date that comes in as well around that time which would be Mid 2024 , which also aligns with the golden Fibonacci 1.618 at 68000.
Fib retracement starting from the top in the year 2000 and bottom would be stock market crash of 1974 , why I picked this high and low because it seems 1974 was the new base low where it formed a good structure for nearly 6000 days and I picked the 2000 bubble as the high because even though it wasn’t the biggest crash in terms of price it was the most overbought on the , hitting a 96 on the , no crash has come close to this so far.
Average Crash Drop
So the average drop in each market crash so far is 50% if you do not include the great depression crash 89% it would be an average of 41%. If price did come up to 1.618 at 68000 dollars a price crash of 45% would put it at 38000 at the Fib level 1.414.
100 year Channel
The Dow Jones has been in and out of this 100 year old channel , it doesn’t have a lot of reaction points on the support side at least not until 1987 onwards but the resistance side of things has far more reaction points and important ones. From 1955 to 1966 we failed to break above this channel which then led to the 1974 crash years later. We didn’t touch the top of that channel for 35 years and when we did in the year 2000 it caused a market crash. So at least we can say that the resistance side of this channel is a very important confluence line.