It would take a brave man to call a top to the bubble after 11 years of stocks absolutely ripping but, for once, it looks like FT Alphaville might have nailed it.
Just over a month ago, we published a live spreadsheet detailing all of the electric vehicle — and related technology — stocks listed on the global equity markets. Without exception, they’d all been ripping in unison —doubling, tripling and quadrupling to the extent that their market capitalisations were completely detached from the underlying financials.
What was propelling it wasn’t entirely clear.
Perhaps it was the outsized returns of king stonk Tesla, or optimism over government-driven renewable energy capital expenditure, or maybe, it was just good ol’ fashioned “I want to get rich quick” energy.
Well, as it turns out, that speculative energy is not as renewable as the one these stocks are hoping to profit from.
Across the board, nearly every one of the charging, EV and battery companies that is long on hope and short on profits is down more than 20 per cent from their all time highs. Bear market territory.
In fact the moves have been so violent over the past month that most of the names are now lagging the traditional automakers. Ford, that near-century-old dinosaur, has even outperformed Tesla over the past three months, perhaps propelled by the near-universal love for its new electric car, the Mach-E.
Looking at the numbers in pre-market, it doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better, or not for now anyway. Tesla is off nearly 8 per cent to $661; Spac Churchill Capital Corp IV, which just announced a deal to take Elon-rival Lucid Motors public, is down almost 40 per cent. Once the clock hits 2.30pm Eastern, there’s little doubt that the selling will engulf the rest of the Nasdaq-listed names. The European stonks are saying as much, with charging names Alfen, Compleo and Fastned down 8.2 per cent, 12.2 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively.
Remember, though, just as it’s almost impossible to call a top until after the fact, so it is with a bottom. Geronimo!