Mid term (under 12 months) stock should reach much lower price levels. I believe eventually it will be a great buy, but not yet.
Adding a bit of a diary type thoughts on TSLA:
Outside of technical view of the chart, market is seeing a lot of competition, every car company is coming out with EVs , essentially they will swap all of the car models into EV equivalent. To say it differently they will change a drive train from ICE to EV on every car they currently produce, and add a screen to the dashboard, which doesn’t have any more functionality than those plastic buttons that they had before on the dashboard. It will look at first glance as if TSLA is lost in the ocean of EVs . But every company will miss the whole point of what TSLA is working on. TSLA is priced for the autonomous self driving, not for producing electric drive trains in cars – anyone can do that now. Ultimately stock price is dropping due to delays in autonomous self driving. Once TSLA hype is over, and broader market/media gives up on it, that will be a great time to buy stock. I believe TSLA will solve self driving problem, it will take them longer than TSLa bulls believe.
When autonomy is solved, most car companies will be out of business. This reminds me cell phone development stages. Back in early and mid 2000s media/market thought it was all about touch screen keyboard vs plastic keypad when Apple came out with iphone. The whole thing with blackberry.. but it wasn’t about the touch screen itself, blackberry ultimately switched to touch screens, that didn’t save them. It was greater vision that Apple had what phone should be capable of, which today is a standard, status quo. No one cares today if their phone has plastic keypad or touch-less screen, it’s all about operating system behind it.
It’s possible that a different company could solve autonomy, I just don’t see anyone having as much progress as TSLA , and Tesla keeps working on it. It’s a question of time, in my mind. It definitely won’t be BMW or VW if they focus most of their resources on perfecting EV drive train, delivering flawless interior, exterior, etc. It has to be a company that focuses on autonomy, tech interphase, and a greater vision of what car can be.