My gold analysis is primarily based on , and .
I believe that Gold might be trying to repeat the topping patterned formed between Aug 29, 2011 to Oct 1, 2012.
and we are at the last leg up, similar to one formed from Aug 2012 to Oct 2012.
– Gold took almost exactly 1 year to retrace from then the all time high of 1921.070 on Sept 2011, to the lowest at 1522.764)
– using Fibo retracement, we found that the Oct 2012 peak @1796.001 is almost exactly retraced at .786 of the all time high retracement.
– looking at monthly, we see that gold is forming a pattern. It’s highly likely that gold will be kept under 2110 level of the top riseing channel. (of course not 100% guaranteed).
WIth this premise in mind, we can look at current:
– Our current high: Aug 3, 2020 @ 2075.282
– Our current low: Mar 8, 2021 @ 1676.866
– See Blue down trend on 4H chart.
On May 17, 2021, we have plowed through the upper blue channel in a very manner, and retested after FOMC on May 19, 2021 @ 1855.00
– From this day onwards, i have to change my bias completely to sentiment, because a critical down trend has been broken and retested.
– Unless we somehow break below the blue trend, otherwise, I see the rising yellow to hold in the foreseeable future.
– a possible retest at 1847 around jun 1, 2021 can still be considered as .
1 more critical point:
gold has broken above the neckline of the W-shaped pattern at 1876-77 level. This will become our new support.
– Only if this is broken below, will we consider a slightly less move, which is to retest 1845-1855 level, before we move up.
If 76-77 level holds, which it seems it will (especially after supposedly CPI news for gold ), I have a very strong believe that gold will continue to strike higher targets.
– Near term: 1895 – 1901 .
– next target zone: 1922-24
– final target zone: 1955-59 . (Also, level of the current retracement from our all time top)
Can gold break the monthly rising wedge?? I highly doubt it. But one thing for sure is, current trend is .