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How Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson Props Compare To Past Rookie QBs

Andrew Luck set the benchmark for rookie quarterbacks with 4,374 passing yards in 2012. The highly anticipated QB class of 2021 will take aim at that record with an extra game on the schedule to accomplish it. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook has already opened Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson props for the 2021 season.

Passing yardage totals are now available for those looking to bet whether the top-two picks in the NFL Draft will go over or under their projection.

Trevor Lawrence Props: Passing Yards

The No. 1 pick from the moment he beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff national championship game as a freshman, the former Clemson QB is the hope to revive the dismal Jaguars, along with rookie NFL head coach Urban Meyer.

Projections are high for the long-haired slinger.

Let’s break down the highest total on the board at BetMGM. 4,199.5 yards would give Lawrence 247 yards per game over 17 games. The 16-game equivalent for this projection would amount to 3,952 yards.

Here’s where that projection slots into the all-time rookie passing yards list:

  1. Andrew Luck – 2012 – 4,374 yards
  2. Justin Herbert – 2020 – 4,336 yards
  3. Trevor Lawrence – 2021 17-game projection – 4,199.5 yards
  4. Cam Newton – 2011 – 4,051 yards
  5. Jameis Winston – 2015 – 4,042 yards
  6. Trevor Lawrence – 2021 16-game projection – 3,952 yards
  7. Carson Wentz – 2016 – 3,782 yards
  8. Peyton Manning – 1998 – 3,739 yards
  9. Baker Mayfield – 2018 – 3,725 yards

4,199.5 yards is a fairly high projection, even for a talent the caliber of Lawrence. If you are betting the over on Lawrence for this prop, you are banking on him at least having a top-five season all-time by a rookie quarterback.  3,952 yards for 16 games would be fifth-best all-time among rookie QBs, and you’d need Lawrence to match that pace for a 17th game.

Should any of these overs cash, Lawrence would be at least third-best all-time in the gross passing yardage numbers among rookie QBs but with that extra 17th game.

Among 2020 quarterbacks, the 3,952-yard projection for 16 games would have tied Lawrence for 14th overall in passing yards with former Rams QB Jared Goff.

This is the efficiency and per game production that will be required for Lawrence to hit over 4,199.5 yards.

Odds and Strategy: How To Bet The 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars 

Zach Wilson Props: Passing Yards

The BYU product will look to join the roll call of former Cougars who have matriculated to the NFL with success. Of course, at this spot, the Jets are hoping they’ve got the second coming of Steve Young, not Ty Detmer.

Here are the available passing yardage totals for Zach Wilson props, with prices:

There’s been some movement on the Wilson line. PointsBet originally opened at 3750.5 then moved it up Monday to 3,850.5 before bringing it in line with DraftKings Sportsbook. New York area bettors will certainly keep this market busy.

Let’s break down the highest total on the board, 3,874.5 yards at BetMGM, which would put Wilson at about 228 yards per game. For a 16-game comparison, that projection would total 3,647 yards. Here’s where that projection slots into the all-time rookie passing yards list:

  1. Andrew Luck – 2012 – 4,374 yards
  2. Justin Herbert – 2020 – 4,336 yards
  3. Cam Newton – 2011 – 4,051 yards
  4. Jameis Winston – 2015 – 4,042 yards
  5. Carson Wentz – 2016 – 3,782 yards
  6. Peyton Manning – 1998 – 3,739 yards
  7. Baker Mayfield – 2018 – 3,725 yards
  8. Kyler Murray – 2019 – 3,722 yards
  9. Dak Prescott – 2016 – 3,667 yards
  10. Zach Wilson – 2021 16-game projection – 3,647 yards
  11. Jim Kelly – 1986 – 3,593 yards

To hit the over on these Zach Wilson props, he would need to maintain a per game average that would come very close to a top-nine all-time rookie passing yardage season. However, eight of the names on the list above his projection all did so since 2011, illustrating the enormous shift in passing across the league in this current era.

In 2020, 3,647 yards would have ranked 17th, ahead of Baker Mayfield and behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Odds and Strategy: How To Bet The 2021 New York Jets 

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