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Federal Reserve officials saw possibility of being more hawkish if inflation persists
uschools The Federal Reserve’s policymakers judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points “would likely be appropriate at…
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Fed Moves Toward Another Big Rate Increase as Inflation Lingers
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, determined to choke off rapid inflation before it becomes a permanent feature of the American…
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‘I Had to Go Back’: Over 55, and Not Retired After All
“If I could’ve left at 62, I would’ve left at 62, but I can’t,” she said. “Not all of us…
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Billionaire Row Condo Board Sues Developers Over 1,500 Building Defects
(Bloomberg) — The condo board at one of New York’s tallest and toniest towers sued the building’s developers, claiming design…
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Reliance Industries: CalSTRS To Vote Against Aramco Chairman As Independent Director
One of the world’s largest institutional investors, California Teachers Retirement Fund, has decided to vote against the appointment of Yasir…
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Singtel Will Fully Subscribe To Its Share In Bharti Airtel’s Rights Issue
Singapore Telecom Ltd., co-promoter of Bharti Airtel Ltd., intends to subscribe to its full entitlement in shares that the operator…
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China’s Nightmare Evergrande Scenario Is an Uncontrolled Crash
(Bloomberg) — Protests intensify at China Evergrande Group offices across the country as the developer falls further behind on promises…
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Syngenta, Chevron Could Face Billions in Claims Over Weed Killer
(Bloomberg) — Yet another popular weed killer used by American farmers for decades is becoming a costly liability for the…
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Cities are taking it slow with American Rescue Plan funds
When President Joe Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) into law last March, it was a momentous occasion…
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Biggest Crypto Coin Sale Fueled by ‘Pump’ Scheme, Research Says
(Bloomberg) — It would become the biggest digital token sale on record. Over 11 months in 2017 and 2018, a…
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The Diapers.com Guy Wants to Build a Utopian Megalopolis
(Bloomberg Businessweek) — In an American economy of winners and losers, it’s clear where Marc Lore falls. He founded two…
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杜大伟、黄益平、姚洋:中国的全球影响力与内部挑战
By David Dollar, Huang Yiping, Yang Yao 2012年,中国政府提出了一项长远的发展目标:到2049年,也就是建国100 周年之际,将中国建设成为一个全面发展、繁荣富强的国家。鉴于中国自1978年起推行经济改革开放政策以来所取得的成功,要实现这种变化当然是有可能的。但当前国内还面临着一些挑战,比如:人口老龄化、城乡差距、金融体系改革有待继续推进、创新力不足和依赖碳基能源等。此外,中国与一些主要合作伙伴的对外经济关系开始出现裂痕,导致双方的贸易和投资壁垒在不断加大。 人口老龄化 新冠疫情向我们发出了一个警示,从现在开始到2049年,可能会有层出不穷的不可预知事件发生。但有一件事是毋庸置疑的:中国将快速进入人口老龄化时代。目前,中国的总生育率已经下降到了每名女性生育1.3个孩子,远低于2.1个孩子的更替率。中国的生育率之所以下跌,原因可能是中国推行的独生子女政策,但政策的松动并未让普通家庭选择生育更多孩子。和其他许多人口密集的亚洲国家一样,中国的住房和教育成本较高,很多夫妇选择只生一个孩子,或者根本不生孩子。即使生育率有所提高,但对中国的劳动力市场而言,未来20年内的影响或也十分有限。 中国人口总量可能已达顶峰。更重要的是,劳动年龄人口已经开始下降。在未来几十年,老年人口预计将大幅增加(见图1)。到2049年,中国65岁以上的老年人口将增加1倍之多,达到4亿人。届时,中国将面临的更突出问题是,85岁及以上的“高龄老年人”将增加两倍多,达到约1.5亿人,超过美国和欧洲此类人口的总和。在处于工作年龄段的群体中,唯一将上涨的区段介于55— 64岁。 人口老龄化既是一个社会问题,也是一个经济问题。照顾老年人需要全社会向医疗保健、长期护理和疗养等领域投入更多资源。按照中国的传统,老人一般由子女赡养。但是,由于家庭规模变小,许多老年人在晚年时可能会无人赡养。将以前由个人承担的老人赡养成本社会化,既有人道主义意义,也有经济意义。 新冠疫情暴露出了中国医疗卫生系统所存在的优势和劣势。优势在于,中国可以进行大规模的临时动员,将稀缺资源转移到最紧急的地方——也正是通过这种方式,中国快速控制住了疫情的蔓延。但很多中国人现在认为,国家有必要加强卫生服务体系,充分利用医疗资源,特别是在老年人聚居的农村地区。 尽管内部存在挑战,但劳动年龄人口的减少不一定预示着中国劳动力数量会急剧下降,劳动力数量还取决于劳动参与度。特别是,中国需要改革退休年龄政策,逐步提高劳动力的退休年龄:男性公务员可以在60岁退休,女性公务员可以在55岁退休。如果身体健康,多数65岁以上的老年人会选择继续工作。政府还可以推行家庭友善政策,这会提高和维持女性劳动力的参与度。 城乡差距 中国城镇化的脚步伴随着40年的改革发展进程稳步向前。城市人口以每年1个百分点的速度不断增长着,占总人口的数量从改革之初的20%增长到了现在的60%。其中,有2亿多的农民工在现有户籍制度下仍保留着农村户口。尽管中国的经济增长活力以及生产率增长很大程度上都源于这种人口流动,但人口流动本身却面临着诸多限制。如果在经济低迷时期失业,这些农民工一般会选择回到农村。当这些新移民来到城市时,他们无法充分享受到城市教育、医疗、养老等社会福利,因此,也很难带着子女或父母一起到城市中来生活。其结果就是形成了割裂的家庭,父母在城市工作,爷爷奶奶守着家里的农田,抚养着留在家乡的儿童。 中国的城市户籍限制政策正在逐步取消,尤其是在一些二、三线小城市。如江西省取消了户籍限制,但在广州和上海等中国最发达的经济中心地区,户籍限制政策依然很严格。虽然中国存在大规模的人口流动,但城乡收入比仍在稳步上升。到2007年,城镇职工的人均收入已达到农村地区的3.14倍——这使中国成为了全世界城乡差距最大的国家(见图2)。中国人口大约占全世界人口总量的五分之一,但却只有7%的可耕种土地,因此,想要5亿人口摆脱农村经济、过上小康生活,困难重重。不过,即便算上已经迁入城市的农民,相对于中国的人均收入和人口密度来说,中国的城市化率仍然很低。韩国等经济快速增长的亚洲经济体在这个发展阶段的城市化率已经接近80%。令人欣慰的是,在过去的十年里中国的贫富差距有所缩小——不过这种差距还很大,城镇职工收入是农民收入的2.71倍。 从社会的角度来说,农村人口中的儿童和老年人比例过高。城市汇聚了大量优质学校,可以让未来的劳动力人口有机会接受更加优质的教育。虽然一些老年人更愿意留在农村地区,但也有一些人会希望搬迁到城市中生活,离他们的成年子女更近一些,同时享受高质量的医疗服务。从经济角度来说,农村地区仍存在劳动力过剩的问题,放宽落户政策有助于维持城市的劳动力人口。…
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Spooked Distributors Protest HUL’s Tie-Up With JioMart – Exclusive
General trade—as distribution through bulk dealers and stockists is called—dominates India’s retail supply chain with nearly 90% share. It’s a…
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How Target Got Cozy With the Cops, Turning Black Neighbors Into Suspects
(Bloomberg Businessweek) — Before police Sergeant Alice White assigns officers to work off duty at the East Lake Street Target…
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Royal Enfield Says Not The Right Time To Launch Electric Motorbike
Royal Enfield, India’s No. 1 cruise motorbike maker, won’t consider launching an electric variant in the coming few years even…
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Ex-Lanistar staff allege bullying, sexism, and a ‘loser’s table’ for missing targets
Staff at celebrity-promoted fintech startup Lanistar were routinely sexually harassed and bullied over the past year, according to the accounts…
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Airbnb, Vrbo Go to Great — Sometimes Annoying Lengths — to Woo Hosts
(Bloomberg) — The phone at the Buckhorn Inn in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, has been ringing off the hook since the start…
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Goldman Sachs names Kelleners as European M&A head
Goldman Sachs has promoted long-serving dealmaker Andre Kelleners to head of mergers and acquisitions for Europe, the Middle East and…
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It’s the Beginning of the End of Easy Money
Central banks are starting to tip-toe away from the emergency stimulus they deployed to fight the pandemic-driven global recession. Federal…
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JPMorgan’s trading platform Neovest fined for operating as an unregistered broker-dealer
The Securities and Exchange Commission said it has charged Neovest, a JPMorgan unit that provides an electronic trading platform, for…
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Credit Suisse enters standstill agreement with Gupta’s GFG Alliance
GFG Alliance said on 23 June it has penned a standstill agreement with Credit Suisse on the Australian unit that…
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Trailblazers Building a More Equitable, Sustainable World
(Bloomberg Businessweek) — Excerpts from Bloomberg interviews with trailblazers from around the world who are reshaping business and government to…
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Stocks To Watch: Thyrocare Technologies, Barbeque Nation, Lupin, JSW Energy, Finolex Industries
Thyrocare Technologies: Promoters to sell 3.49 crore equity shares, representing 66.14% of the equity share capital, at Rs 1,300 per…
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Soaring crop prices will catch up to consumers
Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Commodities Agriculture Expect higher prices for meat, bakery goods and vegetables, says Sylvain Charlebois Author…
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Torrent Power Q4 Review – Distribution Business Normalises: Motilal Oswal
BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset…
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Torrent Pharma Q4 Review – In-Line Numbers; Focus On Margins, Brands To Sustain: ICICI Direct
BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset…
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إصلاح القطاع العام في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا هي الثورة التي يمكن تحقيقها في الحوكمة
مع اقتراب الذكرى السنوية العاشرة للربيع العربي، يتمّ إيلاء الكثير من الانتباه، وهذا أمر محقّ، إلى مسار الحوكمة الأوسع لمنطقة…
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RBL Bank Q4 Results: Net Profit Falls 34% To Rs 75 Crore
RBL Bank Ltd. reported a fall in its quarterly net profit as core income declined and provisions rose. The private…
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Dutch insurer NN Group ‘reviewing options’ for fund management arm
NN Group, the Dutch insurer, has announced it is “reviewing strategic options” for its investment management business, paving the way…
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Kominers’s Conundrums: ‘The Phantom Tollbooth’ in Seven Puzzles
(Bloomberg Opinion) — You can now have Conundrums sent directly to your inbox! Sign up here. When it comes to…
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Zillow Accused in Suit of Squashing Competition in Home Listings
(Bloomberg) — Zillow Group Inc. stifles competition in home listings online, leading to less choice and higher prices for consumers,…
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Bond Tantrum Has Big Silver Lining for Pensions
(Bloomberg Opinion) — As is often the case with large market swings that evoke the specter of a “regime change,” it’s…
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